V Extrapolation

I thought it might be fun to take a look at last year’s statistics and extrapolate them into PCTI V, assuming that we will ever have one. So I took the IV numbers for Esk, Pitto, McK, BC, Wilson, DK, Hops, and Smo and aggregated them into one set of totals. Then, the IV stats for JT, Sabin, Spot, Abe, Beas, Bruise, Donley, and Wes were aggregated into the other set. These are the findings:

FG%

Wilson’s team shot 137/370 last season for 37.0%, while Abe’s team shot 136/382 for 35.6%. Slight shooting advantage to Wilson’s team mainly due to the Pitto factor. But you have to think that Wes will give us a better performance than last season’s 0-10 hot mess.

3 Balls

Wilson’s team shot 44/152 for 28.9% last season, while Abe’s team shot 42/164 for 25.6%. Again, slight 3 ball shooting advantage to Wilson’s team even though neither team should boast about this category. More like which team is the least worst in this statistic.

Free Throws

Abe’s team shot 66/105 for 62.9% last season, while Wilson’s team shot 45/91 for 49.5%. Abe’s team got more attempts and shot a better percentage. This may be misleading since both Pitto and Esk shot uncharacteristically low percentages last season and you can't count on that happening again. However, for self-proclaimed "fundamental basketball players", we sure do struggle with fundamental things like free throws.

Rebounds

Abe’s team grabbed 250 rebounds, 68 offensive, while Ben’s team grabbed 236 boards, 69 offensive. Abe’s group may have a slight advantage here with Abe, Donley, and Bruise as good rebounding bigs and solid rebounding guards JT and Beas. BC and Esk will need to go big in this category to mitigate the advantage. BC doesn’t always embrace his bigness or leftiness, so time will tell if he can lead his team and be BIG.

Points

Abe’s team scored 380 total points to Wilson’s team’s 363 total points. Slight advantage to Abe’s team. This only represents less than 3ppg difference, but given how difficult it has become to score in PCTI, this difference may be larger than what it seems. On second thought, 3ppg seems like a mountain to climb in terms of scoring. Large advantage to Abe’s team.

AT

Wilson’s team had 86 assists and 53 turnovers for an AT ratio of 1.6, while Abe’s team had 80 assists and 71 turnovers for an AT of 1.1. No surprise that DK and Esk are on the team that wins PCTI’s cutest and least relevant metric. Wilson’s team takes care of it a little bit better than Abe’s team, but this advantage may not mean much since PCTI’s career shooting percentage is 36%. Inability to convert turnovers into points hurts both teams here.

Blocks and Steals

Wilson’s team had 29 steals and 13 blocks for 42 total hustle points, while Abe’s team had 36 steals and 7 blocks for 43 total hustle points. Slight edge to Abe’s team with stealers JT, Beas, Donley, and even the old man. BC is the main block threat along with Pitto’s steals. Can Smo protect the rim for his team this season? Playboy has length.....

eFG%

Wilson’s team shot 43.0% when accounting for 3 balls, while Abe’s team shot 41.1%. Edge to Wilson’s team, but perhaps not as wide a margin to be significant. Like BC says, this thing comes down to who makes a couple a 3 balls at the right time.

Points per Shot

Abe’s team scored 0.99 points for every shot, while Wilson’s team scored 0.98. Dead heat. PCTI mainly comes down to which team gets the most shots, given that very few teams in its history have shot the ball well. Hi Kittens!

Conclusion

Statistics tell us that this could be a very evenly matched tournament. Wilson’s team will need above-average offensive performances from players who typically are not primary weapons, while Abe’s team may need some primary players to fill certain roles and sacrifice their scoring. Of course, this could all be irrelevant if we can’t get this weekend on the calendar at some point. Chaos and controversy reign at the moment….

Sabin