Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Mock Draft Email Exchange

AHOP: Yo Brentley, I thought we could entertain ourselves and possibly others who may tune in to the blog with a new (Maty) Mauk draft. But first, give us an update on the Reubs. I see things on Instagram and hear he's just about blind? Hope he's doing ok!
This is hard for me to pick who to choose for since Bin is someone who tolerates me often and Spot, QP is in a 3 way tie for my best friend in the whole world. I assume most people would say I would want to draft for a fellow QPer, so I'm going opposite and I'll draft for Been. I know he's acting like he is choosing between 1 and 2, but without the snake aspect in play, you have to know he's going 1. Before I take my first pick, any thoughts to get the juices flowing?

BC: I’m liking this ida. But dibs on not posting any of this to the blog. Your idea, your job to post. 
Reuben got sick right after Christmas and is 100 percent blind. Good news is, he gets around like a champ. Only place it's really hurting us is with the never ending vet visits. Didn't know eye specialists for animals even existed, now I'm first name basis with my guy. Never the less, I'll dedicate my PCTI performance this coming season to the little fella who spiced up red wine night on the eve of PCTI II. 
As for the draft, I think six aside cuts down on the overall importance. Since the real advantage to gain, I would argue is in building depth. I feel like we could grab names out of a hat and have a pretty close series playing 6v6. Still, I love a good mock, so lets do this. 
You start and I will take the role of SPOTLIGHT. Which, for the record, is a nickname I created.
BC: I misspelled the fourth word of my first email. No worries, I'll bounce back.
AHOP: You'll bounce back, you always do. Also, we will all be playing for Reuben. I would love to see a "Sportscenter Special" type 10 min video of how this has made your family stronger and has motivated you to be even better at PCTI.

I agree with you, depth is gone and you just have to hope the guys you draft are ready to play big minutes. Last year was a weird situation and we got our asses kicked. I am with you and think it will be super competitive.

Also, GREAT job on that nickname. The fact he has nicknames for different groups of guys is awesome. The fact that they are Paco and Spotlight are even better. Kudos to you for giving one of the best nicknames since the Bash Brothers in D2. 

On with the Mock:
As Ben, I am thinking of getting someone that will compliment my game on and off the court, but also needs some top talent. I think Beas should go number one overall, but if I'm Wilson, I go with a big and see what Spot does at 2 knowing it would be tough to give up so much size early. Because of that, the fact Abe was a mess last year, and this guy has someone he's playing for:
With the first overall selection in PCTISIX, I select: Brent "Pun" Carney!

BC: For most of last year, I was the fourth best player on my team and yet here I am, the top pick in the draft. God bless America.  

I get it, though. I'm a comfort pick, mostly because I take care a lot of the stuff nobody really wants to do, ie rebound, hang around the post, screen, etc. Plus, it's a top pick that you can get away with without feeling like you handed over the keys (and by keys, I obviously mean the ball) to someone else. You grab me, you're still in a good spot to shape your team however you choose. You don't (and would be foolish to) plan around what I do. 

Now as Spot at two, I'm going to ride a gut feeling and say that he goes with Beas in the two spot. I think Spot is shrewd enough to go best available at this point in the draft and I think he sees Beas as a guy who's stock is soaring after last season. Having played with them last year, I think Spot really appreciate what Beas does and obviously there personal affinity for each other is well-documented. 

This makes for a really interesting next couple of rounds. Joe and Abe are still dangling in the wind. A disrespected Abe is a dangerous thought and Joe is a proven top notch player who continues to get better (relative to everyone else) each year. Does Ben go jumbo on the size front and go with Abe? In my eyes Abe is the most interesting piece in the draft... 

AHOP: Great point on Joe and Abe. Last year Joe showed flashes, but was not the Joe that controls both ends of the floor. He was hampered by an injury which limited him. Abe had a rough year last go, and I think he is going to be back to the fun loving non-host that we all love. 

Beas is in my opinion the top talent in the draft, but with Spot and Beas, they are struggling w size which could prove to be rough with rebounding.

Because of that, I as Bin Wilsan, pick Abe. Abe, as you stated, is the most interesting piece. He can play at an MVP level, but last year he was in a funk, and that is a kind way of saying it. Bin starting with BC and Abe would be a start to a BIG lineup and would force Spot to start thinking of going after a big. 

Who do you think will be the most improved this year from last? Or do you think "improvements" at this point in PCTI aren't going to happen?

BC: That pick makes sense to me. Every captain forms a team that looks out for his own strengths as a player. Some guys may do it more intentionally than others but nobody is going to put together a team where they have to play a role that is uncomfortable to them. In your scenario, Ben has assembled a team where he'll never have to handle any of the big man duties and is free to roam on the perimeter. 

At this point, the draft playing out this way makes one guy's status very, very interesting: Donley. Don't get me wrong, I don't know that a "big" team versus a "small" team really matters too much. Consider that true post ups are few and far between and size in terms of rebounding really only matters if you're working under the assumption that all ten guys are going to the glass. In PCTI that's never the case. Really, the rebounding edge goes to the team that bothers to have more of its guys step inside the three point line when a shot goes up, regardless of how big they are. Notice I don't even say a team must "have more of its guys crash the boards" or "have more of its guys box out," In PCTI the most minimal effort in rebounding (and defense) can tip the scales. Basically, the team that has the fewest guys who don't completely not try at all usually has the edge. With that said, I think size does have a value in that for a non post guy, it's just annoying to have to guard a big guy. It's not that I think that every guard in this league couldn't stop me in the post (I'm positive they all can) or keep me off the glass (again, effort) but how many really want to? That's where Donley is supremely important. A guy who relishes in playing physical, running, screen setting, etc. Again, every captain is going to look out for himself and at some point Spot has to think, if I keep drafting guards and they keep picking forwards, I'm gonna have to guard one of them. Not to mention, in terms of Donley, before having to miss last year, he was ahead of me on many people's draft boards. Yet this year I go first and he's still unclaimed. Where he goes will be interesting to monitor. 

In a way, that kind of answers your most improved question. I think at this point improvement is only relative to how people have played in their recent past. In other words, I don't think anyone is going to show up as a better version of themselves but I do think somebody who has struggled to play up to their potential in recent PCTIs is likely to get back to form. That's what we saw from Ben Wilson last year. Was he improved? Not really. But his performance was definitely an improvement over past sessions. In that scenario, Donley may be most improved, simply because we've mostly forgot what he's capable of and he's gotta be chomping at the bit to get back out there. I liken this to my golf game. If I have a couple of really bad holes in a row, at some point I'm standing on a tee box and it just comes to me, "man, it's not THAT hard. I am by no means great but I can at least stop sucking. Just stop thinking and pressing and play." That's really where improvement comes from in PCTI. It's the guys who remember that although they're not great at basketball, they don't suck and need to quit playing like they do. Danny last year was another example of this. So who busts out this year? How about you...or maybe Smo...or maybe Abe? Tough call. 

On to the next pick. Like the Abe pick a round before, I don't think you can overthink it. It's much easier to get "cute" with the snake format. Since we're alternating picks, if I'm Spot I love that I can not only get Actor here but I can get an Actor who has plenty of reason to feel disrespected. You take Act and you have a team that is going to spread the floor, share the ball and is athletic and energetic enough to completely make up for any lack of front court player.

Beginning with your next pick, I think this thing really starts to get interesting...

AHOP: I agree with you on the most improved. I will add this as well: I think over the next few years, you will see people stay the same as far as their talent level goes, but a decline in other's games. We are getting to the point where age is going to be a factor and who stays active and healthy. I know for me PCTI is a big driver in me wanting to stay in good shape. Also, I hate fat people. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

I think Joe is a solid pick there. He has shown that he can be the best player on the floor and is usually better when he is "disrespected". I think the biggest question is will Joe be healthy for a full 7 game series. If so getting him at the 4 pick is most likely the best value in the draft. 

I was going to say the exact same thing about the post players and their ability to score on people. It is just a physical grind to guard the post and keep them off the glass. I think if Ben, Abe, and you are consistently hitting the o boards, that is going to be so tough on the other team. Offensive rebounds are the easiest way to break a team's spirits and get easy points. But as you stated, it is mostly effort over size.

With that being said, I would take DK with the next pick. To channel my inner Hubie Brown, "here's a guy that is going to outwork his opponent and the guy he's guarding work for every inch." DK honestly should probably go in the top 3. Everyone loves playing with him, he always plays hard and smart, and he wants to win. Badly. I thought DK was GREAT last year. It will be interesting to see if the captains agree with me on that.

BC: So lets look at where it stands as of now.

Ben
BC
Abe
Danny

Spot
Beas
Joe 
(on the clock) 


Danny fits really well with that group to move the ball and be the top defender. Danny played really well last year and his value should reflect that but the biggest strength for Danny harkens back to your first point on conditioning. Great call by you on that as I think that will become a huge factor (even more so than before) and this year with six guys out there it will matter from the second half of game one onward. Danny is the biggest lock in this thing to be in better shape than everyone else and to be able to play with high energy from start to finish. 

I think Spot grabs Donley here and now I now I think we're starting to see the identities really form. Spot's squad is gonna play fast and shot a lot of threes. Ben's squad is a bit more plodding. If you're Donley here you have to hope you get Smo later in the draft so you're not stuck constantly having to be the token "big guy." 

Great Hubie Brown impression in your last email, by the way. 

As the draft goes on, when are you gonna pull the trigger on yourself? That sounded dirty but I'm leaving it. 

AHOP: The only reason I would pull my trigger is because I know Spot likes me (for some reason) and Ben has to see me more now so he might get me early, otherwise I'm in the mix for the Wes Murray award for last picked.

As far as the guys who are in the best shape, I think DK, Beas, and Spot are 3 that don't get as tired or don't let their fatigue affect their play. Is there anyone else that comes to mind? I also think zone defense will be more prominent this year than in past years with only 6 guys per team. This makes me sad that we won't have at least 7 guys there. Moving on...

Ben snags BMac here. You know what you are getting with him and also helps relieve Ben from having to guard one of the guys who moves around a lot on D. He's going to knock down shots and spread the floor. Good addition here for Ben's team.

BC:
Ben 
BC 
Abe
Danny
McKinney

Spot
Beas 
Joe
Donley
(On the clock) 


Spot could make a tactical move here and scoop up Smo, knowing that he is likely to lose out on the last available big guy if he doesn't pick him right here. Instead I think he drafts you. Congratulations, you've just been reinvented as your team's starting power forward. Do you brand yourself as the Abe Stopper? That would then put Donley on me and either of the other three to decide who guards Ben. I'd say that's a pretty good defensive counter to our obvious size advantage. 

Usually the last couple of picks feel like it's just finishing things out. But again this year it's a little more interesting considering there's only six guys per team. It just occurred to me that if the real draft follows our mock, the bench scoring statistic will actually just be a one-on-one battle between Smo and Wes. This I like. 

AHOP: LOVE THAT PICK! Man! What value. I am hoping to stay out of the bottom of the draft, but like everyone else on my team last year, I was pretty awful. 

I would love to say Ben would take Wes and finally relieve him of his post for last pick, but there's not enough there to do that. With Wes you get a guy that hustles and hits the boards, but Smo is bringing more to the table. Smo occassionally gets into foul trouble, but still alters shots and is disruptive on D. Smo also has not been a threat of offense, but he doesn't turn the ball over. 

Ben going with Smo is also an easy pick since he has been going for the bigger team from the jump. This would be an interesting team with their size and would have a huge advantage on the boards. So the final teams are:
Ben 
BC 
Abe
Danny
McKinney
Smo

Spot
Beas 
Joe
Donley
AHop
Wes

If Spots team could keep Ben's team off the glass and not get worn down, I would assume they would win. With Spot Beas and Joe, if they are running and gunning, they could potential have a couple blow out games. Ultimately, I would give Ben's team the advantage if it were to shake out like this. Any last thoughts or predictions before we have the real draft? I'm fired up!

BC: I've stared at both teams for a few minutes and I'm not positive who I'd set as the morning line favorite. Probably doesn't matter because I'm pretty sure the team I thought was better has lost in every PCTI since the kitten's disaster. 

I think this year with smaller benches it will feel more like a pickup game, which I believe has its plusses and minuses. Our (I'm now back to assuming my own identity, fyi) team will be tough in a close game. Your team seems like the likelier candidate to get a blowout win. But because there are fewer subs, people will have to take possessions off. That means bigger runs, as a team gets up and rests while the other team goes all out to get back in it. I think there will be wild lead swings but I don't anticipate too many blowouts. 

Everyone will have a chance to play big minutes and touch the ball a lot. Some people will use this to get in a rhythm and have a career year. Others will probably get beat down by a few negative plays and play worse than they thought they were capable of. It'll be fun to watch how everyone manages the big minutes and who can do the best job at maintaining a level performance. 

Socially, I'm excited to experience the weirdness of Portland. Of note, how will our recently married men Smo, Bmac and Wes do as they experience their first PCTI as caged animals? What about Spot travelling coast to coast? You're foolish to overlook that he's now the PCTI elder statesman and may not be able to handle the transcontinental grind.  What about Don? How does he manage getting back in to the flow without overcompensating and blowing all his energy early? Can Ben manage a job without jeopardizing his basketball? Will Dan's rejuvenation and suddenly rosy attitude soften his game or will it lead to him staying awake past 8:30 and/or being able to stay seated at a meal for longer than 10 minutes? 

I'll tell you this much, I'm ready for the real draft. I need a team to rally behind and a team to start hating.

Lastly, don't forget I already volunteered you to post this. 


3 comments:

  1. This was some much needed juice unit for the blog. I love a post that is 100% serious with legitimate analysis.

    One of the best points was in regards to the team that gets the most o-rebounds is the one who has the most guys inside the 3-point line... So true.

    It's funny seeing the mock because I agreed with almost every pick, yet can't imagine it ending up so lopsided size wise. The beauty is that it really doesn't matter.

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  2. Love the blog. Kudos to waiting a day after the bachelorette premiere to keep from a ratings battle.

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